AI’s Investment Cycle Is a Rotation, Not a Single Trade

Authored by Columbia Threadneedle portfolio managers Tiffany Wade and Michael Guttag, this paper frames artificial intelligence as a sequence of capital rotations rather than a one-time technology shock 

• AI investment is unfolding in four distinct waves, moving from infrastructure buildout toward enterprise integration and, ultimately, economy-wide productivity gains.

• Leadership is expected to rotate as value shifts from hardware and data centers to software, tools, and workflow-level monetization.

• Hyperscalers retain multi-wave advantages, while active positioning is critical as adoption, monetization, and returns arrive unevenly.

Where might portfolios be overexposed to the current wave—and underprepared for the next phase of AI-driven value creation?