Balancing Acts: Resilient Labour, Sticky Inflation, and Fading Tariff Fears

Authored by the NatWest Chief Economist team, this report delivers a multi-region economic update with a focus on inflation dynamics, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving impact of trade policy uncertainty.

• UK firms report easing concerns over U.S. tariffs, with only 12% citing them as a top uncertainty, though CPI inflation remains elevated at 3.1% and wage growth hit 4.9%.

• U.S. labour market remains solid despite signs of softening in participation and manufacturing jobs; the Fed stays patient.

• OECD forecasts slower global growth, down to 2.9% in 2025–26, driven by trade tensions and weak investment.

Access the full report for data-rich insights into the global policy landscape and its implications for forward-looking investment strategies.