Keep Calm and Carry On

AXA Investment Managers’ latest Macrocast analyzes the macroeconomic fallout from the U.S.’s sweeping tariff escalation, weighing the implications for growth, inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical stability.

Key Insights:

• U.S. Recession Risk: Tariffs have increased average U.S. import duties to 22.5%, risking a mild recession in H2 2025; GDP downgraded from 2.2% to 1.3%.
• nflation Shock: Consumer prices projected to rise by 1.2% over 2025–26, driven by higher import costs and margin compression.
• Fed’s Balancing Act: Despite political pressure, the Fed is expected to cut rates cautiously to maintain credibility and avoid inflation persistence.

Access the full report for AXA’s updated macro forecasts, policy scenarios, and asset allocation implications.