Inflation, Recession And Geopolitical Risk: Can Quality Offer A Safe-Haven?

2023 did not deliver the recession that many were expecting. Consumer strength helped carry the US, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed determined to combat inflation. With credit card debt in the US above pandemic levels, excess savings spent, and inflation below wage growth, the Fed is now acknowledging that inflation can't be the only focus anymore and the risk of an overly restrictive monetary policy on the economy is of equal importance. While recession risks in the US are lowering, equity risks continue to mount with the prospect of low growth in the year ahead and sticky inflation.