Navigating the shortening odds of a recession: Bear markets don't last as long as Bull markets

Since we last discussed the odds of a recession here, the prospect of a recession has become consensus. The issue that remains under scrutiny is the duration and intensity of the recession. The slide in stock markets has destroyed nearly US$35trn of global wealth in H1 2022. In terms of timing, the European economy is headed for a recession by year-end, while the US economy could enter a recession by the end of Q1 2023. A mild recession is expected in the US, whilst in Europe, the intensity of the recession will depend on how the energy crisis is managed.