Allocating Risk in a World That No Longer Moves Together

Neuberger Berman’s quarterly outlook reads less like a forecast and more like a recognition that the old playbook has quietly expired. 

• Markets are fragmenting. Growth, policy and valuations are no longer synchronized, making broad exposure less effective than targeted positioning.
• The center of gravity is shifting away from U.S. mega-caps toward emerging markets and smaller companies, with India and Brazil highlighted as key beneficiaries.
• Fixed income opportunity is no longer in the U.S.; instead, it sits in non-U.S. sovereigns and emerging market debt, where policy divergence creates yield.
• Commodities, private markets and absolute return strategies are no longer diversifiers on the margin—they are becoming core portfolio components.

What emerges is a portfolio built not on direction, but on dispersion. The implication is subtle but important: the era of passive beta dominance is giving way to one where selection, geography and structure matter again.