Trade Policy Becomes Endurance Test, Not Knockout Blow

The featured global outlook contends that tariffs are evolving into a prolonged drag on confidence rather than a decisive lever, even as growth proves resilient 

• U.S. GDP slowed to 1.4% annualized in Q4 but held 2.2% for 2025; one Fed cut is expected mid-year despite policy uncertainty.

• Eurozone growth stabilizes near 1.3%, the U.K. faces modest expansion with further BoE easing, and Japan continues gradual normalization.

• China targets ~4–5% growth amid property overhang; Australia tightens policy as demand reaccelerates.

Does policy uncertainty erode momentum—or merely recalibrate it? The full forecast details regional risks and rate paths.