UK Recovery Firms, But Inflation and Tariffs Complicate the Path

This report assesses a steadier UK backdrop amid renewed U.S. tariff action 

• Headline CPI eased to 3.0%, but core (3.1%) and services inflation (4.4%) remain sticky; unemployment rose to 5.2% as wage growth slowed to 4.2%.

• February Composite PMI climbed to 53.9, retail sales rose 1.8% m/m, and January posted a £30.4bn fiscal surplus; debt stands at 92.9% of GDP.

• A temporary U.S. blanket tariff of 15% erodes the UK’s prior advantage, keeping trade uncertainty elevated.

Is this a durable upswing—or a recovery vulnerable to policy shocks? The full briefing details the balance.