A Resilient UK, Tested at the Edges

NatWest’s latest outlook captures an economy holding its footing despite tightening conditions, even as structural pressures become harder to ignore. 

• Household finances and the housing market remain steady, with mortgage activity and cash-ISA inflows still robust; corporate borrowing has softened but from solid levels.

• Firms’ inflation and wage expectations remain sticky, hiring intentions have weakened, and global labour markets are losing momentum.

• Broader risks—from elevated U.S. equity valuations to lingering fiscal strains—keep the macro backdrop fragile despite UK banking resilience.

For a clearer sense of where stability ends and vulnerability begins, the full briefing offers a more detailed contour of the months ahead.