get Countdown – Fiscal Pressures Meet Political Realities

NatWest’s The Countdown Begins (8 September 2025) assesses the UK’s economic backdrop ahead of the Autumn Budget and places it in global context.

• Fiscal strain: Headroom against fiscal rules has shrunk by ~£20bn, raising speculation about tax rises and spending cuts.

• Domestic trends: Retail sales and mortgage approvals show resilience, but high savings and wage-driven cost pressures weigh on consumption and employment.

• Global backdrop: Eurozone inflation hovers near target, granting the ECB more flexibility, while US job market weakness heightens expectations of Fed rate cuts.

How might fiscal and monetary trade-offs shape investment opportunities this autumn? The full report offers deeper insights..