Vantage Point - Tariff Turbulence

BNY Mellon’s Investment Institute outlines its macroeconomic and asset class outlook in the face of escalating global trade tensions, highlighting potential scenarios and implications for multi-asset portfolios.

Key Insights:

• Base Case – Slowdown (50% probability): U.S. growth slips below trend (1.3%) amid tariff hikes and weak fiscal impulse; inflation ticks higher, limiting Fed cuts.
• Expansion Scenario (30%): Lower-than-feared tariffs and stronger stimulus could boost demand and equity multiples.
• Stagnation Risk (20%): Deep trade conflict triggers stagflation; equities fall, bonds outperform on safe-haven flows.
   

Access the full report and explore how BNY Mellon is positioning across macro regimes.