Weekly Commentary: Navigating macro currents in 2024

Risk assets surged to end 2023 as the Federal Reserve blessed market hopes for rate cuts. That momentum could persist for some time as inflation cools. Stocks slid and bond yields rose last week. Data pointing to sticky U.S. wages showed why we think market optimism on inflation may eventually be let down. The U.S. CPI this week will likely show falling goods prices leading inflation lower in 2024. We see supply constraints putting inflation on a rollercoaster.