Global Economic Outlook: Expect The Unexpected

Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions.  Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide. The situation in Israel is rapidly unfolding, and remains much more of a humanitarian crisis than an economic one.  The involved nations are fairly insular, and the conflict has not yet altered our forecasts.  The economic risk vector will be through oil prices; should the conflict spread to other oil-exporting nations, the global economy could experience another round of energy-led inflation, raising recession risks.