BlackRock/iShares - Weekly Investment Commentary: Stocks Push Higher, But Earnings May Be a Roadblock

Weekly Commentary Overview

- U.S. stocks jumped last week, with beaten-down commodity names leading the advance. Ironically, the gains and drop in volatility were at odds with the market themes of the past several months.

- Since the summer, trading has been largely driven by negative reaction to growing evidence of a global slowdown.

- Last week, however, virtually every economically sensitive asset advanced despite a slew of evidence confirming everyone’s the global economy is indeed decelerating.

- Instead, investors looked past the soft data and focused on positives: a dovish spin on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the conclusion of a major trade agreement.

- The focus in now likely to shift back to U.S. earnings. But analysts are expecting a profit decline in the third quarter, and over the past three months, earnings growth estimates have dropped.

- Last week’s market action served to reinforce our preference for U.S. high yield and Japanese equities.