The featured report assess whether AI qualifies as a true general-purpose technology—and what that implies for growth, inflation and policy.
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AI capex likely adds ~0.5pp to near-term GDP, but productivity gains may follow a historical “J-curve,” with bottlenecks and overinvestment risks tempering early returns.
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Aggregate disinflation is uncertain: sector-level price effects may diverge, while wage dispersion could widen as AI complements some roles and displaces others.
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The Fed may retain a cautious easing bias amid anemic hiring, yet long-run impacts on NAIRU, fiscal balances and neutral rates remain ambiguous.
Is AI a cyclical boost—or a structural reset? The full report weighs the macro variables.
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