This article previews the 18 February RBNZ meeting, arguing that unchanged rates may mask a materially more hawkish outlook
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Inflation has surprised to the upside (3.1% YoY headline vs 2.7% projected), raising the likelihood of upward revisions to both CPI and the policy path.
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Markets price limited tightening before late 2026, yet ING expects two hikes from 3Q26, taking rates to 2.75% by year-end.
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Labour data and PMIs signal stabilising growth, supporting the case for eventual tightening and medium-term NZD strength.
Will new projections validate tightening expectations—or delay them further? The full preview details rate and FX implications.
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