The probability of a Goldilocks-scenario soft landing is increasing. Economic growth and labor data remain not too hot but not too cold. The Fed continues to watch sticky and high services inflation – driven in part by rising auto and property insurance rates – though rate growth is expected to moderate. Net immigration into the US hit a 40-year high in 2022, boosting population growth, and possibly explaining some of the puzzling national labor and income data. While US Equities are coming off fresh highs, fueled by strong earnings growth and resilient margins, we continue to see better risk-adjusted outcomes in international equities and fixed income.
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