We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this year’s projected rate rises and then pause. Global activity gauges this week may show how surging commodities prices are affecting global economies. We see Europe as most vulnerable to the shock.
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