The 2026 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings underscored a resilient but fragile global backdrop: uncertainty is elevated, tail risks are rising, yet markets remain calm. As US policy risk, geopolitics and developed market fiscal strains intensify, emerging markets (EM) provide strong fundamentals, improved policy credibility and diversification value, with energy volatility driving dispersion, reinforcing the case for selective – not beta driven – EM exposure, outlines Mia Soderberg and Thomas Haugaard.
This research note is based on our participation in the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings2026 and reflects our takeaways from meetings, discussions and public sessions held during the week.
Executive Summary
Discussions at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings reinforced a central paradox: global uncertainty is historically elevated, yet risk appetite remains resilient. This partly reflects that the global economy is expected to remain resilient and that increasing downside risks remain risk scenarios and not baseline. From an emerging markets (EM) perspective, our key takeaway was that this do not reflect complacency, but a rational shift in the search for diversification and coming into the crisis with fundamental strength. In a world increasingly shaped by US policy uncertainty, geopolitical tail risks and large fiscal imbalances in developed markets, EM is benefiting from renewed interest in diversification, improving fundamentals and greater policy credibility.
