Private Credit May Be Entering Its Real Stress Test

Robeco’s April multi-asset monitor is one of the more candid institutional notes on private credit. Their argument: the sector is not collapsing, but the easy years are over. 

• Private credit is now roughly a $2.1 trillion market, largely outside traditional bank balance sheets.
• Reported default rates near 2.1% may understate reality; adjusted distress could be closer to 5.4%.
• About 25% of private debt matures over the next 18 months, forcing refinancing into a much harsher rate environment.
• Robeco highlights risks around valuation opacity, PIK income, liquidity mismatches, and concentrated exposure to software/AI borrowers.

2026–2027 may reward restructuring skill and manager quality, while passive allocators discover that illiquidity is not the same thing as stability.