Geopolitics Lifts Oil as Metals and Cocoa Reprice

ING’s commodities team reviews how renewed US-Iran tensions are injecting risk premium into energy markets, while softer fundamentals weigh on metals and agriculture 

• Brent and WTI firmed toward $63–64/bbl after Iranian naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, though warmer US weather and easing supply risks pressured natural gas below $3/MMBtu.

• Base metals trade cautiously: copper holds under $13,000/t as exchange inventories exceed one million tonnes, signalling softer Chinese demand.

• Cocoa has fallen over 70% from 2024 peaks on improved West African weather and export backlogs.

Are markets underpricing geopolitical energy risk—or overreacting to transient supply noise? The full note examines cross-commodity signals.