Geopolitical fragmentation: Investing in a multipolar world

Candriam’s Megatrends Series paper by Ken Van Weyenberg and Johan Van Der Biest explains how US-led globalisation is giving way to lasting fragmentation reshaping growth, supply chains and sector leadership.

• 30%+ of global trade could shift corridors by 2035 as firms redesign supply chains for resilience rather than efficiency.

• Industrial policy is accelerating: the US CHIPS Act ($52bn) and EU Chips Act (€43bn) aim to localise critical technology capacity.

• Investment tailwinds broaden across infrastructure, defence, energy, critical minerals and cybersecurity (projected $500bn market by 2030).