Prepare, don’t predict: a timeless playbook for geopolitical risk management

This L&G blog by John Roe and Christopher Teschmacher sets out a 10-point playbook to help investors assess and respond to geopolitical shocks with discipline rather than headline-driven reactions.

• Geopolitical crises amplify behavioural biases; the framework emphasises process to avoid fear-based, reactive trades.

• Forecasting is unreliable: a study of 16,000+ economic forecasts found experts with ~50% confidence were right only ~20% of the time—supporting scenario-based planning over prediction.

• Key tools include systematic risk monitoring (e.g., news-based GPR indices), predefined signposts, selective hedging vs “harvesting” risk premia, and diversification/liquidity discipline.