Prepared by NatWest Group’s Chief Economist team, the note assesses UK macro conditions at the turn of 2026, balancing resilience against lingering fragility.
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Households increased savings while consumer credit hit a two-year high, signalling caution alongside selective risk-taking.
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Housing activity and corporate borrowing remained stable, with CFO confidence and tech investment appetite gradually improving.
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Labour markets stayed soft, but wage growth proved sticky; globally, US data weakened while the euro area expanded steadily.
The full analysis explores whether this cautious resilience can evolve into sustained momentum.
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