A Synchronized Late-Cycle Upswing Faces Tight Policy Boundaries

Robeco’s 2026 outlook maps a fleeting window where easing trade tensions, fiscal impulse and nascent productivity gains align into a rare cross-economy expansion. 

• Global growth broadens as U.S. consumption holds, Europe re-accelerates and China edges toward domestic revival; inflation stays sticky but contained.

• Central banks ease cautiously, with higher neutral rates and lingering fiscal dominance limiting how far rates can fall.

• Equities retain upside in a melt-up scenario, but stretched valuations make earnings delivery critical; bonds face rising term premia.

For a clearer view of when this harmony could fracture—and how to position before it does—the full outlook lays out the paths ahead.