In the October 2025 edition of Charts and Smarts, portfolio strategists Jack Janasiewicz and Garrett Melson (Natixis Investment Managers) dissect the interplay between cooling labor markets, AI-driven investment, and shifting market narratives.
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Labor demand, not supply, appears to be driving rising unemployment as wage growth normalizes below pre-pandemic levels.
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Consumption remains resilient, buoyed by upper-income households benefiting from high cash yields and equity gains.
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AI investment supports markets but contributes modestly to real GDP once imports are netted out.
Are markets mistaking resilience for renewed strength — or merely enjoying the calm before policy and growth realign?
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