UK Growth Momentum Faces Key Tests

NatWest’s Chief Economist Commentary reviews the UK economy’s recent resilience while assessing risks that could test its durability.

• UK GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, the strongest in the G7, driven by services and government spending, but household consumption remained weak.

• Labour market cooling continues: vacancies and payrolls are softening, though wage growth at 4.8% y/y still challenges inflation targets.

• Global headwinds persist, with weak UK trade, slowing housing demand, and US inflation pressures adding uncertainty.

Will this growth stick? Explore the full report for deeper insights into the balance between resilience and risk.