Macro Talking Points

The US 2s/10s yield curve, which plots the yield difference between 2- and 10-year US Treasury notes, currently trades at -18 basis points. Surely this sends a strong signal that a recession is coming. But not so fast! History tells us that the curve inversion signal needs to be persistent to be reliable. So far, the 2s/10s have traded in negative territory for 11 days year to date, but this is still well short of the historical signal strength.