We see the inflation spike as temporary and believe the rising vaccination rates should allow economies to continue to reopen, assuming the new Omicron variant does not turn out to be resistant to existing vaccines. The growth deceleration in China will likely remain manageable as Beijing shifts towards more policy easing. Major developed countries’ fiscal stimulus should boost global growth. The normalisation of central bank monetary policy will likely proceed gradually without tipping the balance of risks from inflation to growth.
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