Iran’s oil shock puts the Teflon-market thesis to the test

Markets enter the week facing not simply another geopolitical headline, but the prospect of a structural energy repricing. After US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and Tehran retaliated across the region, investors are bracing for a sharp adjustment in oil and gas markets when trading resumes. The issue is no longer whether risk premia rise, but how disruptive and persistent they may become. “The implications for energy markets and commodities, especially for crude oil and LNG flows, are asymmetric and could trigger severe market reactions very soon,” said Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategies.