ING’s James Smith examines five ways the UK Autumn Budget could surprise investors as higher borrowing costs constrain fiscal flexibility. Five ways the UK’s Autumn Budge…
- Fiscal headroom could fall from £24bn to around £10bn, although stronger wage forecasts could materially improve the outlook.
- ING expects roughly £5–6bn of tax increases alongside modest cost-of-living support and higher capital spending.
- Larger spending commitments, stronger minimum-wage growth or heavier gilt issuance could reinforce expectations for higher UK interest rates.
Explore the full report for the key fiscal scenarios that could move UK markets.
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