Aluminium Deficit Persists Despite Easing Middle East Tensions

ING Bank /

23-06-2026

ING argues that the recent US-Iran ceasefire and preliminary agreement have reduced geopolitical risks, but have not changed the underlying reality of a structurally tight aluminium market facing significant supply shortages.

ING estimates that conflict-related disruptions have already removed roughly 3 million tonnes of aluminium production from the market, leaving a projected global deficit of 1.8 million tonnes in 2026.
Chinese exports have risen sharply and output has reached record levels, but production is already above Beijing’s official capacity cap, limiting China's ability to fully offset lost global supply.
Physical market conditions remain tight, with LME aluminium inventories down nearly 40% since the start of the year. ING therefore maintains its aluminium price forecasts of $3,500/t for Q3 and $3,400/t for Q4 despite easing geopolitical tensions.

Read the full report for a detailed analysis of aluminium supply disruptions, Chinese export dynamics and the outlook for global metal markets.

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