Northern Trust’s weekly economic commentary assesses how escalating hostilities involving Iran are transmitting through global energy markets while AI anxieties shape labor market debates.
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Oil prices have risen roughly 18% and global natural gas prices have surged as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—handling about 20 million barrels per day—faces disruption.
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Energy shocks could act as a tax on consumers and force monetary and fiscal recalibration if supply disruptions expand beyond transport into production.
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AI adoption remains gradual: only 10% of firms used AI in production in 2025, suggesting concerns about rapid labor displacement remain overstated.
How long energy disruptions persist may determine whether the global economy absorbs another shock—or faces a deeper inflationary impulse.
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