Van Lanschot Kempen’s February Asset Allocation Outlook argues that early-2026 geopolitical shocks have not altered the underlying macro or market regime
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Despite Venezuela tensions, Iran risks and gold volatility, equity markets remain resilient; US earnings growth exceeds 15%, supporting an overweight to US equities, particularly IT and financials.
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Growth is holding up across the US and Eurozone, while Warsh’s Fed nomination tempers fears of policy excess and reduces tail risks around inflation.
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Bonds remain neutral amid rising term premia; credits are selective, with underweight US investment grade and neutral high yield and EM debt.
Is market indifference to geopolitics justified—or a sign of complacency? The full outlook details cross-asset positioning and sector strategy.
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