Northern Trust’s latest U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook assesses the economy’s resilience amid rising tariffs, persistent inflation, and cooling labor conditions.
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Q2 GDP rebounded 3.0% annualized, but core growth remains subdued as consumer spending (+1.4%) and business investment (+1.9%) decelerate.
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Tariffs now average 18.3%, feeding into inflation in goods like apparel and electronics, while domestic price pressures ease.
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Labor market cooling prompts Northern Trust to forecast three Fed rate cuts starting September, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns.
Explore the full report for detailed forecasts and insights into monetary policy, labor trends, and tariff impacts.
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