Aging has worsened labor shortages, raising the cost of taming inflation. We see the Federal Reserve living with some inflation, so we like inflation-linked bonds. • Stocks edged higher, rallying 15% from October lows. They aren’t reflecting the recession we expect. The yield curve remains deeply inverted. • Labor supply is a major factor in determining the recession cost of trying to tame inflation. That’s why this week’s jobs data are key for the Fed and markets.
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