Our tactical and strategic view

Anyone who just takes a glimpse at the development of the stock markets in March might think, given the almost un- changed final figures that a rather uneventful month has come to a close. Especially after the two previous strong months. But actually, the opposite is the case. A month in which the MSCI AC World Index crawled up by just 0.5% was rich in drama and possibly important turning points. There was also drama in the turning points that did not oc- cur: the Brexit adventure has not yet ended (CIO Flash Goodbye Brexit?1), nor have the trade disputes between the United States and China or the United States and Europe over car tariffs. Meanwhile Brazil, Venezuela or Turkey, to name just three, face many political challenges. At the eco- nomic level, weak new orders and many sentiment indices failed to improve, especially in the auto sector. Similarly, the downward trend in consensus earnings estimates in virtually all equity markets persisted.