Trade Frictions Rise as Chokepoints and Rates Add Pressure

Northern Trust /

01-09-2026

The latest economic commentary assesses the renewed trade conflict, vulnerabilities in global shipping routes and growing pressure on long-term U.S. interest rates.

U.S.-Canada tensions are escalating, with new 50% tariffs threatening integrated North American supply chains and adding uncertainty for future investment.
Maritime chokepoints remain a major vulnerability: nearly 90% of global trade travels by sea, while Hormuz, Taiwan and other constrained routes offer limited alternatives.
Efforts to suppress long-term yields have struggled, as inflation, rising debt and strong credit demand push term premiums higher.

Explore the full commentary for the broader implications for trade, rates and global growth.