Robeco’s April Central Bank Watcher argues the Iran war has become a global monetary policy shock, forcing central banks to delay easing plans and reconsider inflation risks through the energy channel.
- Robeco sees the Fed still cutting twice later this year, but only if oil pressures fade and labor markets soften.
- The ECB may stay on hold in April, with 25 bps hikes in June and September if Brent remains near current levels.
- The PBoC remains cautious, preferring targeted support while resisting aggressive broad easing.
- The BoJ is the outlier, with policy rates expected to keep rising as inflation and wage momentum strengthen.
The broader takeaway: one geopolitical shock has split the global rate cycle into four very different paths.
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