ING’s latest Turkey monitor argues that recent regional tensions have not derailed Ankara’s policy framework, but they are materially complicating the inflation, growth, and external balance outlook.
- ING raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 27.5% from 25.5%, citing higher energy costs, expectations pressure, and fiscal trade-offs.
- Growth was cut to 3.0% from 3.4%, as tighter financial conditions and weaker net exports weigh on momentum.
- The lira is expected to remain broadly managed, with USD/TRY seen at 46.6 by mid-year despite reserve depletion and earlier capital outflows.
Turkey’s challenge is no longer choosing between growth and inflation—it is defending both simultaneously.
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