NatWest’s latest UK macro note argues that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is no longer just an oil story—it is rapidly becoming a broader confidence shock hitting households, businesses, and policymakers.
- Oil moved back above $100, while UK CFO confidence fell to its lowest level since the pandemic amid geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.
- UK housing indicators weakened sharply, with buyer enquiries, agreed sales, and price expectations all deteriorating as mortgage sentiment softened.
- In the U.S., headline CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%, driven largely by gasoline, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path.
If confidence continues to weaken before labour markets break, the macro damage may outlast the energy spike itself.
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