“Rational Exuberance” Sets the Tone for 2026

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DWS CIO Vincenzo Vedda’s Q4 2025 outlook argues that resilient growth, moderating inflation and rate cuts create a constructive backdrop for risk assets in 2026 

  • Three Fed rate cuts, supportive ECB policy and easing inflation underpin expectations for stronger earnings growth, with the S&P 500 seen near 7,500 by end-2026.

  • Bonds offer positive real carry, though rising government debt pressures ultra-long yields; IG spreads look tight, high yield warrants caution.

  • AI remains a structural driver but faces higher dispersion risk; gold is favoured as a portfolio hedge.

Can optimism persist if AI expectations reset or fiscal strains intensify? The full CIO View details cross-asset implications.

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