A Columbia Threadneedle Investments analysis by Kate Moreton, Meg O’Connor and Sarah Glendon assesses how recent US military action in Venezuela could reshape oil markets, migration trends and Latin American geopolitics.
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Venezuelan crude output is <1m bpd vs a 3.5m bpd 1973 peak; even with full sanctions relief, incremental supply is estimated at ~500k bpd over 2–3 years.
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Venezuela represents ~6% of global heavy crude supply, implying potential pressure on heavy-sour differentials if exports rise under US oversight.
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Nearly 8m Venezuelans (~23% of the population) have emigrated since 2014, with normalization potentially supporting gradual remigration and regional trade recovery.
Explore the full report for scenario analysis, timelines and key market transmission channels.
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