This Franklin Templeton Institute “Consider This” note by Kim Catechis outlines a Greenland escalation scenario and its potential spillovers across transatlantic trade, security and markets.
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Trump threatens 10% tariffs, rising to 25% in June, on countries opposing US efforts to acquire Greenland; EU allies have deployed troops symbolically in support of Denmark.
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A forced takeover could trigger EU sanctions, digital taxes and use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, undermining any US–EU trade deal progress.
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Trade exposure is uneven: UK (16.9%) and Germany (10%) lead EU goods-export reliance on the US; defense chains are tight (18% of the F-35 is European-made).
How should portfolios price geopolitical brinkmanship when trade tools and defense commitments collide?
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