Tariffs, Defaults, and Trade Dilemmas: Key Frictions in the Global Outlook

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Northern Trust’s latest Weekly Economic Commentary provides an in-depth look at the macroeconomic headwinds shaping markets, with particular focus on tariffs, student loan risks, and shifting global supply chains.

Key Takeaways:

  • U.S.–China and U.S.–U.K. tariff tensions show modest de-escalation, but baseline tariffs remain entrenched.

  • Trade agreements remain partial and temporary, sustaining uncertainty for global businesses and markets.

  • Student loan defaults are surging post-deferral, with nearly 25% of borrowers behind—impacting credit scores and consumer resilience.

Dive deeper into the geopolitical risks, fiscal implications, and macro signals shaping your portfolio strategy.

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