H1 2024 Outlook

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he global economy should continue to prove resilient to the real rate shock in H1 2024 but the buffers will tire out in the second half of the year, as recession finally hits. Financial markets are all the more oblivious to the underlying cyclical risk as the post-Covid re-leveraging occurred in a 'barbelled' form between government borrowing and opaque private debt channels. Immigration and resilient asset prices (housing, equities) are key mainstays of the soft landing so far. But they will be exploited by populist politicians to hasten the implementation of inflationary policies once the recession sets in

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