For well over a year, equity markets have been taking their cue from rates (or the other side of the coin, inflation). After vacillating between the view that rates will stay higher for longer and the one that they will fall, we seem to be trending back toward the higher-for-longer view. But if US 10-year yields have historically averaged approximately 200 basis points above CPI and the current rate increases are not slowing the economy to the extent the US Federal Reserve desires, why would they not remain higher for longer?
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